A World Cup profile of Colombia’s Gustavo Puerta led me to an older article about future-proofing a midfielder — the game constantly evolves and scouts must identify players for the future game, not just today’s iteration. Harri Mannonen, the mentor of Memphis Grizzlies’ Head Coach Tuomas Iisalo, wrote about the same idea years ago: We must develop young players for the game of 10 years from now, not the game as played today, which complicates skill and talent development.
How do you future-proof a basketball player? What will the game look like when today’s 12 year-olds are playing college and professional basketball? Are the skills being taught currently those they will need in the future game?
The Athletic’s Jon Mackenzie said, “We’re not really thinking about footballers having profiles or skillsets anymore. We’re thinking about footballers having skillsets within phases.” Move beyond position designations — point guard, shooting guard — and even skillsets — shooting, passing, defense — to re-think lineup optimization and skill development in terms of game states: Small Advantage, Big Advantage, Neutral, Defensive Advantage.
Do we have players who can beat a defensive advantage? Do we have self-creators in a neutral state? Can players exploit small and big advantages with the required speed and accuracy? These questions differ from “Can we pass?” or “Do we have enough shooting?”, and these questions and answers shape our skill development. Needing to improve our exploitation of big advantages is not the same as believing we need to improve our shooting, although adding a shooter or improving the team’s shooting may improve the exploitation of the big advantages.
“Beating the press itself is only one phase in the chain possession sequences unfold into. After solving the first line, space appears: now there’s a pocket to access and movement becomes the most valuable skill, as well as the ability to make a neat touch or punchy turn. Solve that and teams are faced with open field, and runners come to the fore: suddenly the skillset required is carrying, an ability to move very quickly, threaten depth before defensive lines can stabilize, and drive into space. Each phase in this possession chain offers different demands, and the task for coaches is to match a player’s role in each phase with their best skills,” wrote Tom Curren, Editor-in-Chief of Scouted.
Think about most teams. The power forward (PF/4) inbounds the ball in the full-court. I watch college teams continually use PFs as their inbound passers against full-court pressure despite explicitly instructing them not to dribble. The PF is not required to inbound the ball! Opponents know they can trap the point guard because the PF will hold the ball when it returns to them, providing time for the defense to recover.
Personally, I develop dribbling skills in all players and encourage all players to dribble during games. However, when a coach uses a different style, and limits players, why utilize them in situations requiring them to dribble? There is a mismatch between their role in this phase and their skillsets. The player makes a mistake, and the coach yells at and substitutes for the player, but it is the coach’s error. Either develop the skills to play in that phase and encourage players to dribble or switch roles.
Basketball differs from soccer as the unlimited substitutes allow coaches to employ greater specialization. Late in the playoffs, trailing teams increased their full-court pressure, running extreme gambling presses. My backup point guard was our press breaker. He moved so well, even three defenders could not prevent him from receiving the inbound pass or stay in front of him. He was our specialist in these defensive advantage phases. He negated the defensive advantage and created big advantages with his movement, agility, and dribbling.
When I coached college basketball, our shooting guard (21/10) started away from the ball. I wanted her to finish the play. Other players faced the defensive advantage, and she received the ball with a small or big advantage to finish the play. Our goal was never to break a press, but to score. Our best shooter started furthest from the ball so she would have the option to shoot, drive, or pass to a teammate for a layup. We matched her best skill (scoring) with her role.
Years ago, I wrote about the myths of the talented player because basketball writers and fans insisted the coaches of the uber-talented needed to let them play. Essentially, they argued the supremely talented excelled only in three-vs-two fast breaks, isolations with space, and catching lobs for dunks, but could not be expected to play half-court offense or defense. They believed these players needed to play in space because of their talent, whereas I argued players who could only play with space were not skilled or talented. Their talented players excelled in advantage phases, but not in neutral or with a disadvantage. The best players excel in all phases: They handle and exploit defensive advantages; they self-create advantages (shots) from neutral; and they play fast (.5-seconds) on the catch and use advantages.
Few players excel in all phases; those who do are considered to be the great players, at least the great offensive players. Our goal with skill development should be to develop the skills to enable players to excel in all phases. However, at competitive levels, coaches should position players to use their skill sets in the right phase.
Some post players excel at back to the basket moves. They self-create shots from a neutral state. However, send a double team, and they may lack the passing skills to leverage the defensive advantage into a big advantage. Other posts need an advantage; they perform better when catching with some movement and attacking an unsettled defender. Some are lob catchers and offensive rebounders who finish plays primarily when receiving with big advantages, but lack more general offensive skills against defensive pressure.
A player who excels only with big advantages is not a bad player, as creating vertical gravity for lob dunks and offensive rebounding increase offensive efficiency. However, asking the player to catch against a set defense and make a play will expose a lack of skill in the neutral phase. The player has value when used in the right phase of play.
Many skill development drills now start with big advantages. I use these drills to introduce basic decision-making, and practice shooting and defensive closeouts. I reduce the initial advantage by adding players, shrinking the space, or shifting the start to practice more realistic decision-making and passing skills. We want big advantages, but we must be able to exploit the small advantages to create the big advantages.
Of course, good defenses force teams to start from neutral. We use team skills (screens) to create initial advantages against a neutral defense, but we also need players who can self-create when teammates cannot get open or late in the shot clock or game. Trainers often emphasize dribbling moves in a neutral state.
Drills solve a problem. The problem may be an individual problem to solve, such as developing better footwork for a post player to attack from neutral, or a team problem, such as improving the team’s execution with a small advantage. The different phases supply a consistent way in which to view the game to practice the basic game states rather than dividing into half-court and full-court or slow or fast. Skills are performed within these contexts, and each context informs the execution. Shooting is not the same with a big advantage as in a neutral state. The game states change the skills. Our practice should prepare players for the different phases, and our expectations in competitive levels (developmental basketball is different, as the goal is development, not winning) should match skillsets with phases.
The game trends faster with a greater emphasis on shooting. Developing faster processing, greater imagination, and better shooting are ways to future-proof a young player. The days of specialists are disappearing; generalist players are needed to combat ever-evolving defensive strategies. All players need all skills, and they need to develop the quick recognition of which skills to use when and the ability to execute the skill. At the end of the day, every player needs to be a playmaker and hard2guard.