A Lesson in Basketball History

Demonstrating the depth of talent in the United States

USA Basketball does not compete internationally to win: It attempts not to lose. The expectation is a championship; anything else is a disappointment or an underachievement, eliciting excuses, explanations, and pundits pontificating. If USAB wins, it should win because it is the biggest country with the most money and biggest professional league. However, if it loses, it is because the best players did not play, American players are not as good, the system is broken, the coaching, AAU, defense, small ball, fundamentals, or any of the 100 other reasons I have read this weekend. Very few people recognize the reality: In a one-game sample, almost anything can happen; population is less important in a sport in which one or two players can have an out-sized effect; and FIBA rules change the game compared to NBA/NCAA rules.

After USA Basketball lost to Germany, Steve Kerr said, “It’s not 1992 anymore.”

The statement can be taken in two ways: (1) The familiar refrain that players internationally have improved or “caught up to” the United States; and (2) Jordan, Bird, Magic, etc. aren’t walking through the door. Most people concentrate on improvement internationally, while expecting Steph, KD, LeBron, AD, Bam, and others to walk through the door and restore order next summer at the Olympics.

There are two greatly overlooked factors about 1992: First, other countries already were developing talented players; second, it was the first Olympics at which the former countries of Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union competed separately. Yugoslavia became Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Macedonia. The Soviet Union became Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. Georgia, Latvia, Lithuania, Serbia, and Slovenia competed at the 2023 FIBA World Cup.

The Soviet Union defeated Yugoslavia for gold in the 1988 Olympics, as the United States won the bronze. Šarūnas Marčiulionis and Arvydas Sabonis, among others, led the Soviet Union, and Yugoslavia featured Dražen Petrović, Toni Kukoč, Vlade Divac, and others. David Robinson, Mitch Richmond, and others represented USAB. The world did not lack talent, which is the reason the United States sent professional players in 1992: The college players, even when players played four years (Robinson was older at the 1988 Olympics than was Anthony Edwards at the 2023 FIBA World Cup), no longer could beat the world’s best consistently.

By 1992, Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union did not exist. Not only did the United States send its best professionals, but its biggest competition fractured into numerous different countries. The United States defeated Croatia (Dražen Petrović, Toni Kukoč) for the gold, and Lithuania (Šarūnas Marčiulionis, Arvydas Sabonis) won the bronze. The United States did not defeat Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union; geopolitics did.

When we point to modern players such as Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Luka Dončić as evidence the world recently “caught up” to the United States, we ignore the history of top players, including those playing prior to and in the 1992 Olympics. Jokic and Dončić may be the best European players ever to play, just as LeBron James may be the best American player, but Sabonis, Petrović, Kukoč and others have legitimate arguments, just as many argue Jordan as the best American player. Therefore, this idea that European basketball developed in the last decade is ridiculous and ignorant.

Beyond Europe, Brazil’s Oscar Schmidt, a 1984 NBA Draft pick, is in the discussion with more recent South American players such as Manu Ginobili and Luis Scola as the continent’s all-time best player. Andrew Gaze, a 1989 NBA Draft pick, and Luc Longley, a 1991 NBA Draft pick, remain among the best all-time Australian players, although recent players such as Patty Mills, Josh Giddey, and others likely eclipse or will eclipse them before they retire. The point is, the rest of the world was filled with basketball talent prior to 1992, and certainly before 2010.

Basketball internationally has improved, but much of the competitive improvement of the last 20 years is from Africa and, to a lesser extent, Asia. There are no more 80-point wins at this level because these countries are so overmatched. These teams now feature NBA or near-NBA players. The United States cannot overwhelm teams with NBA talent because even the smallest countries, such as Latvia (Davis Bertrans) and Cape Verde (Edy Tavares) have NBA players or NBA-level talent.

I do not understand the “It’s not 1992 anymore” statement. The USA did not own basketball in 1992, and the 1992 Olympic performance was a confluence of events, not just a demonstration of American superiority.

Despite the history beyond the borders of the United States, the United States continues to develop most of the basketball talent worldwide. Even in Europe, the United States is the most-represented country in the EuroLeague with 81 players out of 292 players last season. The best performer for Greece was from Texas (Thomas Walkup), the Philippines best player was Jordan Clarkson, who was born in Florida and raised in Texas. Many of Canada’s players attended high school or prep school, in addition to college, in the United States. Of course, the United States population is roughly double the population of the six European nations to qualify for the quarterfinals (Germany, Serbia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Italy). Add Canada to the European nations, and the United States still has over 136 million more people than the other seven quarterfinalists. Therefore, the United States should develop the most basketball players.

As for winning the World Cup, population is not sufficient. A large population should guarantee an advantage in terms of depth, especially with other advantages in terms of wealth, facilities, health care, and more, but a great national team only requires seven to eight players, and as Germany, Serbia, Canada, and others showed, only one to two stars. Over the course of several generations, it is more likely that the best player comes from the biggest population, but in any given generation those odds even out, and the best player on earth is just as likely to come from Sombor, Serbia, Ljubljana, Slovenia, Toronto, Canada, or Akron, Ohio. One or two top players near their peaks, and healthy, combined with five to six very good players is sufficient to win the World Cup, and this does not require the biggest population, although Germany is the second most populous country in the quarterfinals. Latvia, with a population of 1.8 million, finishing in 5th place is the biggest overachiever.

All of this is to say, and I mentioned last week, the results of a tournament do not tell us much that we do not know already. USAB cannot overwhelm teams with NBA players anymore because most teams have NBA players. USAB did not send the A team. NBA rules differ from FIBA rules. Collecting all-stars is suboptimal team building, especially for FIBA competitions. Despite frequent allusions to skill, fundamentals, and shooting, the United States lost while shooting 58% from the field, 48% from the three-point line, and 96% from the free-throw line. Fundamentals, especially shooting, are not the problem.

A friend sent me a post from Facebook:

“The comments about the US sending their C team is ignorance and stupidity at it’s finest. For the last few weeks people have been yelling that the NBA is the best league in the world, but apparently only hosts the top 5% best players in the world? If it’s the BEST league with the BEST players, not accounting the internationals, we should be able to send 20 teams made up of completely random NBA players and STILL be the best team in the world. The rest of the world has caught up, the only reason the NBA is a top choice for players is because of the contracts, but let Saudi Arabia start a league or Europe have something similar as a premier league with the same kind of play and that dynamic will shift almost automatically. There’s a reason why FIBA is harder to play, it’s actual basketball. Not this show they put on in the States for entertainment value.”

I thought about this with regards to team building as I wrote the article last week, and I am fairly certain USAB could send multiple teams that would have fared just as well as this team.

What if the United States sent a EuroLeague team? Many may not recognize these names, but this team likely would have fared at least as well in the 2023 FIBA World Cup.

Guards: Kevin Punter, Mike James, Shane Larkin, Tyler Dorsey, Thomas Walkup (played for Greece, but from Texas)

Forwards: Derrick Williams, Will Clyburn, Nigel Hayes-Davis, Luka Sikma

Posts: Kyle Hines, Brandon Davies, Donta Hall

This may not even be the best team one could choose just from American EuroLeague players. There are recent NBA players who will be playing their first seasons, such as Jabari Parker and Frank Kaminsky; players jumping from EuroCup to EuroLeague, such as Jonathan Motley; and established players such as Jordan Loyd, Darius Thompson, Nigel Williams-Goss, and others. This also ignores players outside EuroLeague, including players in Australia such as Bryce Cotton.

What about a head coach with FIBA experience, such as David Blatt, Chris Finch, John Patrick, or Tom Hovasse? The current coaching staff found space for a college coach (Mark Few), but not a coach with considerable FIBA coaching experience. Why not add David Vanterpool, a long-time NBA assistant coach with experience as an assistant coach to Ettore Messina with CSKA Moscow in the EuroLeague?

A team comprised of NBA bench players, but built with specific archetypes, likely would have fared just as well as the team this summer. Before scoffing at such a suggestion, Dennis Schröder was named the MVP, and often comes off the bench, and Bogdan Bogdanović, another player who often comes of the bench, led Serbia.

Guards: Malik Monk, Davion Mitchell, Malcolm Brogdon, Isaiah Joe, Immanuel Quickley

Forwards: Sam Hauser, Jarred Vanderbilt, Bruce Brown, Jr.,

Centers: Robert Williams, Xavier Tillman, Jaylin Williams, Naz Reid

These choices are mainly off the top of my head as an example, not an exhaustive search or a perfect example of archetypes. This team obviously looks less talented to NBA fans because they are reserves, not borderline stars like Anthony Edwards or DPOYs like Jaren Jackson Jr. The team sacrifices some go-to, isolation scoring and shot creation for defense, size, and ball movement. Brogdon-Monk-Brown-Reid-Williams is an interesting starting lineup to match up against Germany’s Schröder-Obst-Wagner-Voigtmann-Theis. Hard to argue Germany’s lineup is more talented or more athletic, although, as we saw, that means less in FIBA competitions.

Now, imagine the 6th man team or the EuroLeague team with one or two NBA stars: Curry, KD, Kawhi. Or, maybe replace Quickley with Anthony Edwards as the star. Do those teams fare much worse than 6-3 and a 4th place finish?

Therefore, as per the question from the Facebook post, USAB could send a number of random teams (maybe not 20, but 10? 15?) that could fare equally well in FIBA competition. That does not mean they are guaranteed to win, as single game, win and advance competitions increase variability and unpredictability, and, with the exception of the EuroLeague example, the teams still would be playing with different rules. The United States continues to have a depth of talent, but depth does not guarantee championships, nor the best overall player at any given moment. Germany’s win or Jokic’s success is not a condemnation of basketball in the United States, but these competitions and the high-level success of some players developed outside the U.S. system should provide some cause for serious reflection, not just the knee-jerk blaming of AAU or players lacking fundamentals or not being able to shoot, as even in a disappointing tournament, those were not the fatal flaws.

International basketball success did not happen overnight, nor in the last decade. To suggest the world just recently caught up to the United States is to disrespect the history of many great players prior to the advent of social media and hot takes.