The Elusive Scholarship Chase
NIL, and an influx of European talent, is a greater threat than the transfer portal for high school players pursuing basketball scholarships.
Every year, as basketball season concludes, college coaches and others implore high-school players to commit before the transfer portal opens. The 5th year of eligibility granted to players due to Covid years disrupted the math. Each year, prior to Covid, the transfer portal, and NIL, X number of players graduated or otherwise departed, and X number of high school, junior college, and international players filled those spots.
The Covid years disrupted these numbers, as fewer players departed. Rather than X players replacing X players, the number of departures was reduced (X - C), leaving fewer available scholarships for incoming high-school, junior college, and international players.
Because the onset of Covid, the transfer portal, and NIL coincided, for the most part, the three remain intertwined. However, the Covid 5th years have completed their eligibility; there are only a few remaining who redshirted on top of the Covid years. For the most part, we have returned to X players graduating and X players matriculating.
However, the transfer portal disturbed the math again, but primarily because we are bad at math. Every day, people argue there are fewer scholarships for high school players because there are 1200 players (or more) in the transfer portal. They ignore the scholarships opened by the players jumping into the portal. Every player (more or less) in the transfer portal gave up a scholarship elsewhere to enter the portal. With dozens of NCAA D2 players in the transfer portal with the hopes of D1 scholarships, the number of D1 or P4 scholarships may be affected, but players in the portal have a marginal effect on total scholarships available to incoming players, as incoming players replace the departing/graduating players.
Imagine X in the good old days was 1500: 1500 college players graduated, retired, or otherwise completed their eligibility, and 1500 HS, JC, and international players matriculated to fill their roster spots. Now, instead of 1500 openings due to departures, there are 2700 available scholarships (1500 + 1200 in the portal), but those 1200 transfers and 1500 incoming players are fighting for the scholarships. It may be harder for a freshman to be recruited to a Power 4 program or even a Division 1, but the total available scholarships have not decreased significantly from the pre-portal era now that the Covid 5th years exhausted their eligibility.
As everyone directs their ire to the transfer portal, the burgeoning problem in terms of available scholarships for high-school players is the increased interest from international players due to NIL. International players have matriculated to colleges for generations. That is nothing new. However, the elite international players (Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Wembanyama) rarely played college basketball, as they signed professional contracts in their teens and earned money without having to attend classes. Some elite players with their eyes on the NBA Draft (Domantas Sabonis, Lauri Markkanen) attended colleges to increase their visibility to the NBA, acclimate to the U.S. prior to the NBA, or prove their athleticism to NBA skeptics.
More, better, and older European players now are signing with high-major NCAA programs due to NIL. Players such as Dame Sarr (Barcelona) and Egor Demin (Real Madrid) likely never would have considered college basketball prior to NIL. Multiple 20 and 21 year-old players from Croatia, Poland, and elsewhere have signed with colleges this spring after playing professional basketball because the NIL money at a P4 exceeds almost any potential contract available to them in Europe. Programs such as BYU likely will support a budget next season exceeding those of some EuroLeague teams, and few EuroLeague teams sign 18-year-olds to large contracts, beyond Doncic, because they are viewed as not ready to contribute to winning at that level. Even Wembanyama left AVSEL in the EuroLeague for Metropolitans 92 to guarantee more playing time in his final pre-draft season.
NCAA is likely the second-highest paying basketball organization in the world, at least in terms of total compensation (not average), because of the number of programs, the television revenue, and the free-market NIL. NCAA now makes sense even for the most elite young European players because they earn more than they would in Europe, and they compete for playing time with other primarily 22 and under players rather than competing with veterans that coaches trust because of their age, experience, and past performances. Real Madrid, one of the best teams in the world, plays 37-year-old Sergio Lull 17 minutes a game in EuroLeague, while 34-year-old Facundo Campazzo plays 26 MPG. Would Demin have seen many minutes with these trusted veterans still able to handle a heavy load?
NIL is the reason high-school and junior-college players have fewer opportunities. Imagine in the original 1500 high school, junior college, and international players, 1000 were high school, 400 were junior college, and 100 were international (I have no idea; these numbers are made up to facilitate understanding; the percentages and totals may be way off, but the overall point holds). The 100 international players were primarily recent high-school graduates or players who took a single gap year; they were 18-20 years old when arriving on college campuses. Most played men’s and possibly professional basketball, although often not at the highest competitive level. For instance, one of the top players when I coached in Denmark’s 1st league — the second-highest level in Denmark — was a 17-year-old committed to Gonzaga. He played with and against men, but at more of a semi-professional level than a full professional league. This spring, a 21-year-old in Poland signed with a P4 program after playing in a full professional league. This is the change.
NIL affords these opportunities now because there is no illusory amateurism. Nobody cares if they played professionally before college. Everyone is a professional now. Less than five years ago, a European player’s family was forced to pay back over six figures to his professional club for the club to sign off he was an amateur, and thus eligible to play NCAA Division 1 basketball. I had to get a signed letter from the president of their European leagues to prove my players were not paid professional players before arriving to play junior-college basketball only seven years ago. The shift over the last few years has been dramatic, and the influx of the older, talented European players has escaped attention due to the angst surrounding NIL, the transfer portal, and Covid 5th years.
Would you sign an 18-year-old high-school player or a 21-year-old professional player? Who is likely more prepared for college practices, arenas, fans, travel, and more? Imagine BYU, UConn, and Duke competing to sign 21 year-olds Jabari Smith Jr., Shaedon Sharpe, and the Thompson twins for next season!
A high-school graduate who may not be ready for college basketball has few options. Possibly, the player finds an NCAA D2, D3, or NAIA opportunity. He may pursue junior college. He may take a postgrad year at a prep school. An 18 or 19-year-old high-school graduate in Europe with no scholarship offers trains and plays with men, potentially as a professional, and does not use a year of eligibility, as does an NCAA D2 or JC player. They are similar to postgrads, except they do not have classes and train multiple times a day as full-time basketball players with older, more professional players.
The transfer portal is what it is, for better or worse, but it does not reduce the total number of available scholarships; it circulates players to different schools, but does not extend eligibility. In fact, it reduces eligibility, in a sense, as previously players who transferred redshirted for a season, which tied up a few scholarships each year as players stayed for five years.
NIL is the greater problem in terms of opportunities for high-school players because the available money attracts a bigger pool of better players. This pool directly impacts the available opportunities, and the new recruits come with the advantage of age, experience, and professionalism. NIL or paying players in some form is a positive and long overdue, but is not without its negative ramifications. Most are concerned with the ability of mid-majors to compete in an era of multi-million dollar player contracts, but the greater threat to basketball in the USA is reduced opportunities for teenagers who have nowhere else to play beyond college basketball. If people are worried about opportunities for high-school players, NIL, not the transfer portal, should be the focus of their concerns.